Win rate alone tells you how often you win. Expectancy tells you how much you make on average per trade — accounting for both your wins and your losses. It is the only metric that proves a strategy is worth trading.
Expectancy Calculator
Plug in your real numbers and see whether your strategy has a positive expectancy.
Expectancy Calculator
Enter your trading statistics to calculate your expectancy per trade.
Formula: (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
Common Scenarios
These three examples show how the same win rate can mean very different things.
70% win rate — but losing
50% win rate — breaking even
40% win rate — profitable
How Tracker Fx Helps
Stop estimating. Tracker Fx calculates your actual expectancy from real trade data — automatically, across every platform you trade.
Tag trades to your playbook setups and Tracker Fx calculates expectancy per strategy. Find which setups have a real edge and which ones are dragging your overall results down.
Expectancy updates with every trade that syncs. Connect cTrader, Bybit, MT4 or MT5 and your edge metrics are always based on your most current data.
Expectancy requires both win rate and average R multiple. Tracker Fx tracks both simultaneously and shows you how changes in either metric affect your overall edge.
Your overall expectancy masks which symbols you actually have an edge on. Tracker Fx breaks it down by instrument so you trade the ones that work and reduce the ones that do not.
Expectancy can vary dramatically by time of day. Tracker Fx breaks down your performance by session to show when your edge is strongest — and when you should stop trading.
A small sample makes any expectancy number unreliable. Tracker Fx always shows how many trades the calculation is based on so you know when the number is meaningful.
The Real Question
Without expectancy, the answer is just a feeling. With it, the answer is a number.
Without Tracker Fx
Trading without expectancy.
With Tracker Fx
Expectancy tracked automatically.
Supported Platforms
Connect your accounts and your expectancy data updates automatically. No CSV exports, no manual calculations, no spreadsheets.
cTrader
Connects via the official cTrader API. Full trade history imports on connection, new trades sync every 2 hours. Expectancy, win rate and profit factor calculated automatically.
Learn about cTrader → 14-day free trial included
Bybit
Connects via read-only API key (Bybit Global). Supports Perpetuals (USDT and coin-margined) and Spot. Expectancy metrics sync every 2 hours automatically.
Learn about Bybit → 14-day free trial included
MetaTrader 4 & MT5
Connects via API to any MT4 or MT5 broker. No plugins, no CSV exports. Full trade history syncs automatically and expectancy updates with every closed trade.
Learn about MetaTrader → Requires a paid plan
OANDA
Connects via the OANDA API. Supports forex pairs, indices, commodities and metals. Full trade history syncs on connection with new trades updating automatically.
Learn about OANDA → 14-day free trial includedTraders on Tracker Fx
What happens when traders see their actual expectancy numbers for the first time.
"I ran two setups for six months thinking they were both working. One had a positive expectancy of +$38 per trade. The other was +$2. I was spending equal time on both. The data made the decision obvious."
"My expectancy was positive overall but Tracker Fx showed it was negative on three symbols I traded most. I was undermining my own edge with bad execution on specific instruments."
"I always thought a higher win rate meant a better strategy. Then I ran the numbers. My 40% win rate trend-following setup had 3x the expectancy of my 68% win rate scalping setup. That changed everything."
FAQ
Trading expectancy is the average amount you expect to make or lose per trade. It is calculated using the formula: (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss). A positive expectancy means your strategy makes money on average per trade. A negative expectancy means it loses money regardless of how many trades you take. It is the single most reliable way to determine whether a trading strategy has a genuine edge.
Yes. Win rate and expectancy are independent. A strategy with a 40% win rate can have a strongly positive expectancy if the average win is large enough relative to the average loss. For example, a 40% win rate with an average win of $300 and an average loss of $100 produces an expectancy of +$60 per trade — significantly positive despite losing more often than winning. Many professional trend-following strategies operate this way.
A minimum of 50 trades is generally considered the threshold for an expectancy number to be meaningful. Below that, a few outlier trades can distort the result significantly. Ideally you want 100 or more trades before making strategy decisions based on expectancy — especially when evaluating whether to scale or cut a specific setup. Tracker Fx always shows the sample size alongside the expectancy number so you always know when to trust it.
Expectancy tells you the average dollar amount made or lost per trade. Profit factor is the ratio of gross profits to gross losses — a profit factor above 1.0 means the strategy is profitable overall. Both measure edge but in different ways. Expectancy is more useful for comparing strategies with different average trade sizes, while profit factor is intuitive as a simple ratio showing how many dollars you make for every dollar lost. Tracker Fx calculates both automatically from your real trade data.
Yes. Tracker Fx includes a 14-day free trial with full access to all expectancy tracking features for cTrader and Bybit accounts. MetaTrader connections require a paid plan. No credit card required to start.
Start Today
Connect cTrader or Bybit and Tracker Fx calculates your expectancy, win rate, average RR and profit factor automatically — from your real trade history.
Start Free Trial
Automatic Sync14-Day Free TrialcTrader & Bybit Free TrialCancel Anytime