70% · $50 : $200
Losing. Expectancy is negative despite winning most trades. The average loss is four times the average win, so a few losers wipe out a string of wins.
A 70% win rate can lose money. A 35% win rate can be excellent. Calculate your win rate, the win rate you actually need to break even, and your expectancy per trade.
It only becomes useful next to one other number: the win rate you needed.
Win rate is the percentage of your trades that are winners. Twenty wins out of fifty trades is a 40% win rate. That number, on its own, does not tell you whether you make money.
What makes it meaningful is the breakeven win rate: the win rate your strategy needs given your average win and average loss. Above it you are profitable, below it you lose, no matter how good the raw percentage looks.
This is why chasing a higher win rate often backfires. Tighter targets raise the win rate but shrink the average win, which can raise the breakeven win rate faster. The two numbers only mean something together.
Enter your wins, losses and average win and loss. See whether your win rate is actually profitable.
Average win and average loss in the same currency. Enter the loss as a positive number.
If your win rate is above the breakeven win rate, expectancy is positive. Expectancy = (Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss)
These show why a win rate by itself can never tell you if a trader is profitable.
Losing. Expectancy is negative despite winning most trades. The average loss is four times the average win, so a few losers wipe out a string of wins.
Breakeven on paper. Costs and spread tip this into a loss in practice, which is why a perfectly symmetric win rate rarely survives contact with real fills.
Excellent. A classic trend-following profile: few wins, but each one is large. The win rate looks bad and the strategy is strongly profitable.
A calculator uses the numbers you type. Tracker Fx uses the numbers your account actually produced.
Calculated from every synced trade, not from your memory or a sample you chose. The real number, always current.
Win rate sits next to realised risk/reward and expectancy, so a high rate with poor R:R is exposed instead of celebrated.
Win rate per playbook, so you find the setup with a great percentage that is quietly negative once the average loss is included.
Win rate broken down by session and symbol automatically, so you see where the percentage holds up and where it collapses.
The number that actually matters, calculated for you from the real win rate and the real average win and loss.
Trades sync automatically, so your win rate reflects last week, not the last time you remembered to update a spreadsheet.
Connect your account and the win rate is calculated automatically from then on. No CSV files, no imports.
Connects via the official cTrader API. Full history imports on connection and win rate updates on every new trade.
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Connects via read-only API key (Bybit Global). Win rate calculated on perpetuals and spot, synced every 2 hours.
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Connects via the OANDA API. Forex, indices, commodities and metals with win rate on every trade.
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Connects via API to any MT4 or MT5 broker. No plugins and no CSV exports - win rate synced automatically.
Learn about MetaTrader →Everything you might want to know about win rate.
Win rate is the number of winning trades divided by the total number of trades, expressed as a percentage. Twenty wins out of fifty trades is a 40% win rate. It does not, on its own, tell you whether you are profitable.
There is no single good number. A 40% win rate is excellent with a high risk/reward and unprofitable with a low one. The win rate that matters is whether it is above the breakeven win rate implied by your average win and average loss.
The breakeven win rate is the win rate at which your strategy makes no money and loses none, given your average win and average loss. It is the average loss divided by the sum of the average win and average loss. Below it you lose money even if most trades win.
Tracker Fx calculates your real win rate automatically from synced broker trades and shows it next to expectancy and risk/reward, broken down per setup, symbol and session, so you see whether each win rate is actually profitable.
Yes. Tracker Fx includes a 7-day free trial with full access to all journaling and analytics features. Card required, cancel anytime from your account settings before day 7 to avoid being billed.
Connect cTrader, Bybit or OANDA and Tracker Fx calculates your real win rate next to expectancy and risk/reward, per setup, so you finally know if the number is good.
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