A 70% win rate can lose money. A 35% win rate can be excellent. Calculate your win rate, the win rate you actually need to break even, and your expectancy per trade.
The Definition
It only becomes useful next to one other number: the win rate you needed.
Win rate is the percentage of your trades that are winners. Twenty wins out of fifty trades is a 40% win rate. That number, on its own, does not tell you whether you make money.
What makes it meaningful is the breakeven win rate: the win rate your strategy needs given your average win and average loss. Above it you are profitable, below it you lose, no matter how good the raw percentage looks.
This is why chasing a higher win rate often backfires. Tighter targets raise the win rate but shrink the average win, which can raise the breakeven win rate faster. The two numbers only mean something together.
Free Calculator
Enter your wins, losses and average win and loss. See whether your win rate is actually profitable.
Win Rate Calculator
Average win and average loss in the same currency. Enter the loss as a positive number.
If your win rate is above the breakeven win rate, expectancy is positive. Expectancy = (Win% x Avg Win) - (Loss% x Avg Loss)
Why It Misleads
These show why a win rate by itself can never tell you if a trader is profitable.
| Win Rate | Avg Win : Avg Loss | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 70% | $50 : $200 | Losing. Expectancy is negative despite winning most trades |
| 50% | $150 : $150 | Breakeven. Costs and spread tip this into a loss |
| 40% | $300 : $100 | Strongly profitable. Few wins, but each one is large |
| 35% | $400 : $100 | Excellent. A classic trend-following profile |
From Number to Truth
A calculator uses the numbers you type. Tracker Fx uses the numbers your account actually produced.
Calculated from every synced trade, not from your memory or a sample you chose. The real number, always current.
Win rate sits next to realised risk/reward and expectancy, so a high rate with poor R:R is exposed instead of celebrated.
Win rate per playbook, so you find the setup with a great percentage that is quietly negative once the average loss is included.
Win rate broken down by session and symbol automatically, so you see where the percentage holds up and where it collapses.
The number that actually matters, calculated for you from the real win rate and the real average win and loss.
Trades sync automatically, so your win rate reflects last week, not the last time you remembered to update a spreadsheet.
Supported Platforms
Connect your account and the win rate is calculated automatically from then on. No CSV files, no imports.
cTrader
Connects via the official cTrader API. Full history imports on connection and win rate updates on every new trade.
Learn about cTrader → 14-day free trial included
Bybit
Connects via read-only API key (Bybit Global). Win rate calculated on Perpetuals and Spot, synced every 2 hours.
Learn about Bybit → 14-day free trial included
OANDA
Connects via the OANDA API. Forex, indices, commodities and metals with win rate on every trade.
Learn about OANDA → 14-day free trial included
MetaTrader 4 & MT5
Connects via API to any MT4 or MT5 broker. No plugins and no CSV exports - win rate synced automatically.
Learn about MetaTrader → Requires a paid planTraders on Tracker Fx
A win rate next to expectancy changes which trades you keep taking.
"I was proud of a 68% win rate. Tracker Fx showed the expectancy was barely positive because my losers were huge. Humbling, and exactly what I needed."
"One setup had a 38% win rate so I almost cut it. Its expectancy was the best of all of them. The percentage alone would have made me delete my best edge."
"Seeing win rate per session was the unlock. One session was dragging the whole number down. I stopped trading it and everything improved."
FAQ
Win rate is the number of winning trades divided by the total number of trades, expressed as a percentage. Twenty wins out of fifty trades is a 40% win rate. It does not, on its own, tell you whether you are profitable.
There is no single good number. A 40% win rate is excellent with a high risk/reward and unprofitable with a low one. The win rate that matters is whether it is above the breakeven win rate implied by your average win and average loss.
The breakeven win rate is the win rate at which your strategy makes no money and loses none, given your average win and average loss. It is the average loss divided by the sum of the average win and average loss. Below it you lose money even if most trades win.
Tracker Fx calculates your real win rate automatically from synced broker trades and shows it next to expectancy and risk/reward, broken down per setup, symbol and session, so you see whether each win rate is actually profitable.
Yes. Tracker Fx includes a 14-day free trial with full access to all journaling and analytics features. The free trial is available for all platforms except MetaTrader, which requires a paid plan.
Start Today
Connect cTrader, Bybit or OANDA and Tracker Fx calculates your real win rate next to expectancy and risk/reward, per setup, so you finally know if the number is good.
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Real Win Rate14-Day Free TrialShown With ExpectancyAll Platforms Except MetaTrader